A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
